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Trump Wins ... Now What?

November 06, 2024
Trump won the Presidency, Republicans won the Senate and the jury still out on the House.

Our macro models stayed bullish through the pre-election jitters and all VGA strategies are close to maximum long. Should be a great day for  investors! In addition to overwhelmingly positive seasonality we previously posted for Nov & Dec (following strong performance thru October), the market set up was bullish as its overbought condition was worked off in late-October and early November, setting the stage for a year-end rally.

Shown below (first chart), the market clearly favored a Trump win as the S&P rallied into increased odds of a Trump win. Why ... Earnings! Trump's policies favored lower taxes and less regulation while Harris' favored the opposite. According to a study by Ned Davis Research, Harris' corporate tax hike proposal could have decreased S&P 500 after tax earnings by 9% while Trump's tax cut could increase earnings by 5%. 2024-11-06 07_13_35-Bespoke Report - Bespoke-Report-110124-roi4r4433.pdf — Mozilla FirefoxSource: Bespoke

The second chart below, shows sector performance after Trump won in 2016. Financials were the big winner, but Industrials and Comm Services did well. We have been overweight Financials, but think Tech & Utilities will continue to perform well as the AI revolution and power demand continue to play out.
2024-11-06 07_13_44-Bespoke Report - Bespoke-Report-110124-roi4r4433.pdf — Mozilla Firefox
Source: Bespoke
 
We'll have to see how Trump's proposed tariffs play out, but his prior administration was good for the economy, consumers and the stock market (see tables below).
election2Source: VGA, data sourced through Bloomberg
GDP: annualized average
Inflation: annual average of CPI
Unemployment: average U-3 BLS.
 

Investment advisory services are provided through Integrated Advisors Network, LLC (“Integrated”) a registered investment advisor. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. Vineyard Global Advisors, LLC is a practice group of Integrated.

The opinions expressed herein are those of Vineyard Global Advisors and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to sell any product. Forward-looking statements cannot be guaranteed. This document may contain certain information that constitutes “forward-looking statements” which can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as “may,” “expect,” “will,” “hope,” “forecast,” “intend,” “target,” “believe,” and/or comparable terminology. No assurance, representation, or warranty is made by any person that any of Vineyard’s assumptions, expectations, objectives, and/or goals will be achieved. Nothing contained in this document may be relied upon as a guarantee, promise, assurance, or representation as to the future. Vineyard Global Advisors is an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. Investment advisory services offered through Integrated Advisors Network, LLC (“Integrated), a registered investment advisor. Vineyard Global Advisors is a DBA of Integrated.

The S&P 500 Index is a stock market index that tracks the performance of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. It is market-capitalization-weighted, meaning companies with a larger market value have a greater impact on the index. The S&P 500 is widely used as a benchmark for the U.S. equity market and provides a broad representation of various sectors of the economy, including technology, healthcare, financials, and consumer goods. It is often used by investors to gauge overall market performance and to compare the returns of individual investment portfolios. This document contains performance data that references the S&P 500 Index (the "Index"). The S&P 500 Index is a market capitalization-weighted index of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the U.S., and is widely regarded as a benchmark for the U.S. equity market. Please note that the S&P 500 Index is unmanaged and does not include transaction costs, fees, or expenses associated with the purchase or sale of securities. Unlike the performance of the Fund, which may be subject to fees, the performance of the Index does not reflect the impact of these costs. Index returns are typically gross returns, unless otherwise specified. Past performance of the Fund or its manager is not indicative of future results, and there can be no assurance that the Fund will outperform or track the performance of the S&P 500 Index or any other benchmark. The S&P 500 Index is used solely for comparison purposes and does not reflect any investment strategy or portfolio. It is not possible to directly invest in the S&P 500 Index.

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