--- title: Weak Endings to Strong Years description: What happens after a strong year, but December is lackluster? image: https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/hubfs/image%20(1).jpg --- [![Vineyard Global Advisors](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/hs-fs/hubfs/Vineyard_GlobalAdvisors_logo_transparent.png?width=250&height=87&name=Vineyard_GlobalAdvisors_logo_transparent.png "Vineyard Global Advisors")](https://www.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/) - [Home](https://www.vineyardglobaladvisors.com) - [Our Firm](https://www.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/our-firm) - [Philosophy](https://www.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/our-philosophy) - Strategies - [Strategy Overview](https://www.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/strategies) - Equity Alpha - [Quantitative Value](https://www.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/quantitative-value) - [Quantitative Growth](https://www.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/quantitative-growth) - [Sector Rotation](https://www.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/sector-rotation) - [Style Flex](https://www.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/style-flex) - [Optimized Equity Alpha](https://www.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/optimized-equity-alpha) - [Enhanced S&P 500](https://www.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/enhanced-500) - Income - [Russell 3000 Enhanced Dividend](https://www.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/russell-3000) - [Dynamic Yield](https://www.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/dynamic-yield) - [Risk Managed Income](https://www.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/risk-managed-income) - [Global Fixed Income](https://www.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/global-fixed-income) - Asset Allocation - [Advantage Plus Series](https://www.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/advantage-plus-series) - [Allocation Plus Series](https://www.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/allocation-plus-series) - [ETF Advantage Series](https://www.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/etf-advantage-series) - Insights - [Market Commentary](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/commentary) - [Quarterly Webinars](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/commentary/tag/webinars) - [In The News](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/blog/tag/in-the-news) - [Blog](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/blog) - [For Advisors](https://www.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/wealth-advisors) - Contact - [Contact Us](https://www.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/contact-us) - [Request for Proposal](https://www.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/request-for-proposal) ![VGA_Hero](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/hubfs/VGA_Hero.jpg) [Market Updates](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/commentary/tag/market-updates) | 1 min read # Weak Endings to Strong Years Written by [VGA Investment Team](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/commentary/author/vga-investment-team) December 30, 2024 **Year to Date the S&P 500 Index is up 26.8%. However through Friday Dec. 27th, the index is down 1% for the month. What has happened in other years similar?** Looking at years where the S&P 500 Index is up greater than 15% ytd, but December finished with a negative month; here are the stats (both since 1901 and Post-WW-II). Not a death knell for the following year. Actually, post-WW II, only 1 out of 6 instances finished down. Average = +7.7%, 83% positive. The one exception was 1980, when Reagan was elected. He was a disruptive, less Govt, pro-biz President like Trump has promised to be. However, inflation (12.8%), interest rates (10-yr = 12.7%) and unemployment (7.5%) were much higher and Fed Chairman Paul Volker raised the Fed Funds rate from 9.5% to 20% the following year to kill inflation, throwing the economy into a deep recession.   ![image](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/hs-fs/hubfs/image.jpg?width=717&height=445&name=image.jpg) *Source: Bloomberg*   Technically, the S&P 500 is not as bearish as early 1981 ( 50/200 bear cross in June 1981. Albeit, we are seeing some weekly macd divergences now as then.) ![image (1)](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/hs-fs/hubfs/image%20(1).jpg?width=740&height=357&name=image%20(1).jpg)*Source: Bloomberg*     | [![View Our Strategies](https://hubspot-no-cache-na2-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/cta/default/19651629/0f0d02a1-ab92-4994-b098-68cb6f2bae33.png)](https://hubspot-cta-redirect-na2-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/cta/redirect/19651629/0f0d02a1-ab92-4994-b098-68cb6f2bae33) | [![Contact Us Today](https://hubspot-no-cache-na2-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/cta/default/19651629/542864bc-0da7-4a08-9f27-df9bac129224.png)](https://hubspot-cta-redirect-na2-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/cta/redirect/19651629/542864bc-0da7-4a08-9f27-df9bac129224) | | --- | --- | ** You Might Also Like:**  - [**Having the Risk Tolerance Discussion**](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/blog/having-the-risk-tolerance-discussion) - [**"Talking Technicals." Interview with Kendall Dilley on Money Life with Chuck Jaffe**](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/blog/kendall-dilley-money-life-with-chuck-jaffe) - [**Changing Goals as Retirement Nears**](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/blog/changing-goals-as-retirement-nears) Investment advisory services are provided through Integrated Advisors Network, LLC (“Integrated”) a registered investment advisor. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. Vineyard Global Advisors, LLC is a practice group of Integrated. The opinions expressed herein are those of Vineyard Global Advisors and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to sell any product. Forward-looking statements cannot be guaranteed. This document may contain certain information that constitutes “forward-looking statements” which can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as “may,” “expect,” “will,” “hope,” “forecast,” “intend,” “target,” “believe,” and/or comparable terminology. No assurance, representation, or warranty is made by any person that any of Vineyard’s assumptions, expectations, objectives, and/or goals will be achieved. Nothing contained in this document may be relied upon as a guarantee, promise, assurance, or representation as to the future. Vineyard Global Advisors is an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. *Investment advisory services offered through Integrated Advisors Network, LLC (“Integrated), a registered investment advisor. Vineyard Global Advisors is a DBA of Integrated.* The **S&P 500 Index** is a stock market index that tracks the performance of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. It is market-capitalization-weighted, meaning companies with a larger market value have a greater impact on the index. The S&P 500 is widely used as a benchmark for the U.S. equity market and provides a broad representation of various sectors of the economy, including technology, healthcare, financials, and consumer goods. It is often used by investors to gauge overall market performance and to compare the returns of individual investment portfolios. This document contains performance data that references the S&P 500 Index (the "Index"). The S&P 500 Index is a market capitalization-weighted index of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the U.S., and is widely regarded as a benchmark for the U.S. equity market. Please note that the S&P 500 Index is unmanaged and does not include transaction costs, fees, or expenses associated with the purchase or sale of securities. Unlike the performance of the Fund, which may be subject to fees, the performance of the Index does not reflect the impact of these costs. Index returns are typically gross returns, unless otherwise specified. Past performance of the Fund or its manager is not indicative of future results, and there can be no assurance that the Fund will outperform or track the performance of the S&P 500 Index or any other benchmark. The S&P 500 Index is used solely for comparison purposes and does not reflect any investment strategy or portfolio. It is not possible to directly invest in the S&P 500 Index. There is no guarantee that the investment objectives will be achieved. Moreover, past performance is not a guarantee or indicator of future results. Does not constitute advice or a recommendation or offer to sell or a solicitation to deal in any security or financial product. It is provided for information purposes only and on the understanding that the recipient has sufficient knowledge and experience to be able to understand and make their own evaluation of the proposals and services described herein, any risks associated therewith and any related legal, tax, accounting or other material considerations. Integrated is registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Registration of an investment adviser does not imply any specific level of skill or training and does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the Commission. Business is only transacted in states in which it is property registered or is excluded or exempted from registration. 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Now What?](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/commentary/trump-wins-now-what) Next [DeepSeek, are Markets in Deep Trouble? →](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/commentary/deepseek-are-markets-in-deep-trouble) ## You May Also Like These Perspectives on Market Updates [![ft-img-new-bull-market-1](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/hubfs/ft-img-new-bull-market-1.jpg)](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/commentary/tom-samuelson-on-money-life-with-chuck-jaffe-june-2026) [Market Risk](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/commentary/tag/market-risk) ### [Tom Samuelson, CFA, CMT on Money Life with Chuck Jaffe](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/commentary/tom-samuelson-on-money-life-with-chuck-jaffe-june-2026) June 16, 2026 | 1 min read [![Cover Photo](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/hubfs/social-suggested-images/Cover%20Photo.png)](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/commentary/2026-first-quarter-review) [Market Updates](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/commentary/tag/market-updates) ### [2026 First Quarter Review](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/commentary/2026-first-quarter-review) May 05, 2026 | 1 min read [![Cover Photo](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/hubfs/social-suggested-images/Cover%20Photo.png)](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/commentary/2025-review-2026-outlook) [Market Updates](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/commentary/tag/market-updates) ### [2025 Review & 2026 Outlook](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/commentary/2025-review-2026-outlook) February 06, 2026 | 1 min read ### Subscribe to Vineyard Commentary ![Vineyard_GlobalAdvisors_logo_white](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/hs-fs/hubfs/Vineyard_GlobalAdvisors_logo_white.png?width=200&name=Vineyard_GlobalAdvisors_logo_white.png) 9800 Mt. 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