DeepSeek, are Markets in Deep Trouble?

January 27, 2025

The market, especially the Nasdaq and AI stocks are selling off this morning on concerns that a Chinese company’s AI model has surged to the top spot in Apple’s App store. This Chinese company called DeepSeek introduced its new AI model, called R1, on Jan 20 which competes with Microsoft-backed Open AI’s ChatGPT and others.  DeepSeek’s R1 model apparently used first generation Nvidia chips (H100’s) with open source programming and cost just $5.6 million to “train” in contrast to the hundreds of millions spent on other models. 

DeepSeek’s R1 model (we have downloaded it and it works very well vs. ChatGPT) challenges long-held assumptions that AI demands huge investments for firm’s to take advantage of it, which is behind the 10-15% declines this morning in many AI-related stocks such as Nvidia and Broadcom.

However, several analysts and industry experts point out that China’s access to next generation chips from Nvidia will be restricted. Microsoft’s CEO also posted this morning that lowering the cost of AI will increase demand for its wide ranges of usage as has happened with other major technology evolutions.  This interview from AI expert and billionaire Alexandr Wang from Davos, Switzerland last week is worth a listen:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/technology/artificial-intelligence/scale-ai-ceo-says-china-has-quickly-caught-the-u-s-with-the-deepseek-open-source-model/ar-AA1xJsCr

He points out the recent $500 billion US-led  “Stargate” AI investment initiative with Oracle, Softbank and others plus a $600 billion investment initiative from Saudi Arabia last week showcases the AI arms race that will play out over the next 2-5 years which relies heavily on US tech companies. 

We had been concerned about stretched valuations among several large cap tech and AI stocks which now make up about 32% of the S&P 500’s market capitalization. VGA implemented a hedge position in early January to attempt to mitigate the revaluation risk of these so-called Mag7 stocks to the S&P 500 and are currently underweight most of these companies in our strategies.  

Note below, that while the market-cap weighted S&P 500 and Nasdaq are stretched in terms of their historic price-earnings multiples (historically 16x and 25x respectively), the average or equal-weighted S&P 500 is not expensive nor are other styles like US Mid-cap.  This suggests a 5-10% pullback in the market will make many stocks outside of the Mag7 very reasonably valued.

2025-01-27 07_14_24-Week-End Update - Message (HTML)

Source: Bloomberg

Net-net: the DeepSeek news will cause increased volatility and some re-valuation in the short run but the AI theme will likely continue to play out for the next several years before a more lasting valuation bubble bursts.  This chart from Bespoke compares the current AI bull market run since ChatGPT was introduced in November 2022 to the dotcom run from 1995-2000.  The two are tracking closely and the comparison suggests we are less than half-way through the AI bull market.  As always, we will adjust our strategy exposures and positioning should the backdrop deteriorate but, for now, this looks like a correction within an ongoing bull market to us.

ChatGPT

Source: Bespoke

 

Investment advisory services are provided through Integrated Advisors Network, LLC (“Integrated”) a registered investment advisor. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. Vineyard Global Advisors, LLC is a practice group of Integrated.

The opinions expressed herein are those of Vineyard Global Advisors and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to sell any product. Forward-looking statements cannot be guaranteed. This document may contain certain information that constitutes “forward-looking statements” which can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as “may,” “expect,” “will,” “hope,” “forecast,” “intend,” “target,” “believe,” and/or comparable terminology. No assurance, representation, or warranty is made by any person that any of Vineyard’s assumptions, expectations, objectives, and/or goals will be achieved. Nothing contained in this document may be relied upon as a guarantee, promise, assurance, or representation as to the future. Vineyard Global Advisors is an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. Investment advisory services offered through Integrated Advisors Network, LLC (“Integrated), a registered investment advisor. Vineyard Global Advisors is a DBA of Integrated.

The S&P 500 Index is a stock market index that tracks the performance of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. It is market-capitalization-weighted, meaning companies with a larger market value have a greater impact on the index. The S&P 500 is widely used as a benchmark for the U.S. equity market and provides a broad representation of various sectors of the economy, including technology, healthcare, financials, and consumer goods. It is often used by investors to gauge overall market performance and to compare the returns of individual investment portfolios. This document contains performance data that references the S&P 500 Index (the "Index"). The S&P 500 Index is a market capitalization-weighted index of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the U.S., and is widely regarded as a benchmark for the U.S. equity market. Please note that the S&P 500 Index is unmanaged and does not include transaction costs, fees, or expenses associated with the purchase or sale of securities. Unlike the performance of the Fund, which may be subject to fees, the performance of the Index does not reflect the impact of these costs. Index returns are typically gross returns, unless otherwise specified. Past performance of the Fund or its manager is not indicative of future results, and there can be no assurance that the Fund will outperform or track the performance of the S&P 500 Index or any other benchmark. The S&P 500 Index is used solely for comparison purposes and does not reflect any investment strategy or portfolio. It is not possible to directly invest in the S&P 500 Index.

There is no guarantee that the investment objectives will be achieved. Moreover, past performance is not a guarantee or indicator of future results. Does not constitute advice or a recommendation or offer to sell or a solicitation to deal in any security or financial product. It is provided for information purposes only and on the understanding that the recipient has sufficient knowledge and experience to be able to understand and make their own evaluation of the proposals and services described herein, any risks associated therewith and any related legal, tax, accounting or other material considerations.

Integrated is registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Registration of an investment adviser does not imply any specific level of skill or training and does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the Commission. Business is only transacted in states in which it is property registered or is excluded or exempted from registration. A copy of Integrated's and VGA's current written disclosure brochure filed with the SEC which discusses among other things, business practices, services and fees, is available through the SEC's website at: www.adviserinfo.sec.gov

You May Also Like

These Perspectives on Market Risk