All major US stock indices are currently trading above rising 200-d day moving averages, with their 50-day moving averages above their 200-day. Plus the market is in good shape from a macro quantitative perspective, as our macro models remain bullish.
Historically, we can expect a positive Nov-Dec on the order of +4-5%, with odds strongly in the favor of the bulls.
See stats and analogs below:
Source: Carson
As of this writing, we don’t yet know how October will finish. But, as of now, the S&P 500 is +20.1% year-to-date. Note the analogs below for historic returns (since WW-II) for Nov-Dec and Nov-Jan when the S&P 500’s returns have been above-average thru October year-to-date.
Source: VGA, data sourced through Bloomberg
Vineyard Global Advisors offers 13 fee-only, actively managed, including hedged and long-only investment strategies via separately managed accounts. Contact Us to learn more.
Knowing how to evaluate potential risks and rewards carefully can be
overwhelming. Look for a manager who has the experience and ability to tailor your portfolio and who can access specialized funds, strategies, and opportunities.
Investment advisory services are provided through Integrated Advisors Network, LLC (“Integrated”) a registered investment advisor. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. Vineyard Global Advisors, LLC is a practice group of Integrated.
The opinions expressed herein are those of Vineyard Global Advisors and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to sell any product. Forward-looking statements cannot be guaranteed. This document may contain certain information that constitutes “forward-looking statements” which can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as “may,” “expect,” “will,” “hope,” “forecast,” “intend,” “target,” “believe,” and/or comparable terminology. No assurance, representation, or warranty is made by any person that any of Vineyard’s assumptions, expectations, objectives, and/or goals will be achieved. Nothing contained in this document may be relied upon as a guarantee, promise, assurance, or representation as to the future. Vineyard Global Advisors is an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. Investment advisory services offered through Integrated Advisors Network, LLC (“Integrated), a registered investment advisor. Vineyard Global Advisors is a DBA of Integrated.
The S&P 500 Index is a stock market index that tracks the performance of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. It is market-capitalization-weighted, meaning companies with a larger market value have a greater impact on the index. The S&P 500 is widely used as a benchmark for the U.S. equity market and provides a broad representation of various sectors of the economy, including technology, healthcare, financials, and consumer goods. It is often used by investors to gauge overall market performance and to compare the returns of individual investment portfolios. This document contains performance data that references the S&P 500 Index (the "Index"). The S&P 500 Index is a market capitalization-weighted index of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the U.S., and is widely regarded as a benchmark for the U.S. equity market. Please note that the S&P 500 Index is unmanaged and does not include transaction costs, fees, or expenses associated with the purchase or sale of securities. Unlike the performance of the Fund, which may be subject to fees, the performance of the Index does not reflect the impact of these costs. Index returns are typically gross returns, unless otherwise specified. Past performance of the Fund or its manager is not indicative of future results, and there can be no assurance that the Fund will outperform or track the performance of the S&P 500 Index or any other benchmark. The S&P 500 Index is used solely for comparison purposes and does not reflect any investment strategy or portfolio. It is not possible to directly invest in the S&P 500 Index.
There is no guarantee that the investment objectives will be achieved. Moreover, past performance is not a guarantee or indicator of future results. Does not constitute advice or a recommendation or offer to sell or a solicitation to deal in any security or financial product. It is provided for information purposes only and on the understanding that the recipient has sufficient knowledge and experience to be able to understand and make their own evaluation of the proposals and services described herein, any risks associated therewith and any related legal, tax, accounting or other material considerations.
Integrated is registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Registration of an investment adviser does not imply any specific level of skill or training and does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the Commission. Business is only transacted in states in which it is property registered or is excluded or exempted from registration. A copy of Integrated's and VGA's current written disclosure brochure filed with the SEC which discusses among other things, business practices, services and fees, is available through the SEC's website at: www.adviserinfo.sec.gov
These Perspectives on Market Risk
Vineyard Global Advisors, LLC (“the Adviser”, “Vineyard Global Advisors”, or “VGA”) is a DBA of Integrated Advisors Network, LLC (“Integrated”). Integrated is an SEC registered investment advisor. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. VGA is affiliated with, but not under common control of, Integrated.
More information about Vineyard Global Advisor, including our investment strategies, fees and objectives, can be found in our Form ADV Part 2A and our Form CRS.
Copyright © 2024 | Vineyard Global Advisors LLC | All Rights Reserved.
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Cras eu mauris dapibus ante interdum tempor non eu metus. Vestibulum ante ipsum primis in faucibus orci luctus et ultrices posuere cubilia curae; Sed lobortis sodales consequat.