--- title: The Hamas Attack on Israel and the Risks Ahead description: The recent tragic attack on Israel by Hamas is unlikely to lead to skyrocketing oil prices and a stock market crash, but there are still risks ahead. image: https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/hubfs/ft-img-the-hamas-attack-on-israel-1.jpg --- [![Vineyard Global Advisors](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/hs-fs/hubfs/Vineyard_GlobalAdvisors_logo_transparent.png?width=250&height=87&name=Vineyard_GlobalAdvisors_logo_transparent.png "Vineyard Global Advisors")](https://www.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/) - [Home](https://www.vineyardglobaladvisors.com) - [Our Firm](https://www.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/our-firm) - [Philosophy](https://www.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/our-philosophy) - Strategies - [Strategy Overview](https://www.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/strategies) - Equity Alpha - [Quantitative Value](https://www.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/quantitative-value) - [Quantitative Growth](https://www.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/quantitative-growth) - [Sector Rotation](https://www.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/sector-rotation) - [Style Flex](https://www.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/style-flex) - [Optimized Equity Alpha](https://www.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/optimized-equity-alpha) - [Enhanced S&P 500](https://www.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/enhanced-500) - Income - [Russell 3000 Enhanced Dividend](https://www.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/russell-3000) - [Dynamic Yield](https://www.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/dynamic-yield) - [Risk Managed Income](https://www.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/risk-managed-income) - [Global Fixed Income](https://www.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/global-fixed-income) - Asset Allocation - [Advantage Plus Series](https://www.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/advantage-plus-series) - [Allocation Plus Series](https://www.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/allocation-plus-series) - [ETF Advantage Series](https://www.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/etf-advantage-series) - Insights - [Market Commentary](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/commentary) - [Quarterly Webinars](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/commentary/tag/webinars) - [In The News](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/blog/tag/in-the-news) - [Blog](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/blog) - [For Advisors](https://www.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/wealth-advisors) - Contact - [Contact Us](https://www.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/contact-us) - [Request for Proposal](https://www.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/request-for-proposal) ![VGA_Hero](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/hubfs/VGA_Hero.jpg) [Market Updates](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/commentary/tag/market-updates) | 3 min read # The Hamas Attack on Israel and the Risks Ahead Written by [VGA Investment Team](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/commentary/author/vga-investment-team) October 09, 2023 The tragic attack on Israel this weekend by the Hamas militant group in Gaza was an act of barbaric terrorism that has left hundreds of Israelis dead, but (by itself) is unlikely to lead to skyrocketing oil prices, a severe recession, and a stock market crash as the Yom Kippur War did 50 years ago. This isn't to say there aren't risks ahead. There are, as described below. We will monitor the events closely as they play out in the weeks ahead and adjust our strategies accordingly. However, in recent years, these kinds of events have seen an initial reaction of higher oil prices followed by a significant decline: - The Aug 1990 Iraqi Invasion of Kuwait saw a subsequent 58% drop in oil prices from Nov-90 to Mar-91. - The 9/11 US attacks on the World Trade Centers and Pentagon saw a 43% drop in oil prices from Oct 2001-Dec 2001. - The Aug 2006 Lebanon War saw a 37% subsequent drop in oil prices from Aug 2006 to Feb 2007. So far, West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices have only risen $3.45 per barrel to $86.24, while the S&P 500 Index is higher by 25 points on the day, to 4,335. Key Points: 1. The initial "knee-jerk" reaction by markets has been higher oil prices and oil stocks (VGA is currently overweight energy), a decline in most other stocks, and a fear trade into US Government bonds (due to fears of an "oil shock" recession, escalation of Middle East war) 2. One positive difference now vs. 50 years ago when the Yom Kippur War occurred is that Israel and Saudi Arabia were very close to signing a peace deal before this attack happened. The attack was intended, in part, to derail that deal and was timed to the 50th anniversary of the Yom Kippur War, fought in October 1973 between Israel and a coalition of Arab states led by Syria and Egypt. The Arab Oil embargo that followed the Yom Kippur War had the support of Saudi Arabia and led to a quadrupling of oil prices, a severe US recession, and the 1973-74 US stock market crash (a total decline of 48%). 3. Over the weeks ahead, a key issue will be if this conflict escalates to include Iran (rumored to have funded and helped organize the attack). If so, President Biden will be pressured to reinforce oil sanctions on Iran. Iran is back to producing 3.1 million barrels per day (mmb/d), up from a low of 1.9 mmb/d in Aug-2020 following President Trump's withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal and re-instatement of sanctions in 2018. 4. Positively, Saudi Arabia has three mmb/d of shut-in oil production capacity AND has shown the willingness in recent years to add oil supply to the market to reduce upside price volatility around events like this. For example, in the months following the 9/11 attacks, Saudi Arabia increased its oil production by over 30% or 2.2 mmb/d. 5. While there is a risk that the conflict will escalate and lead to a broader Middle East conflict, the current backdrop is different than 50 years ago in that Saudi Arabia has shown the willingness to add supply to the market and the shale revolution in the US has resulted in another major source of global oil supply. For example, US oil production has more than doubled to its current level of 12.9 mmb/d vs. only 5.7 mmb/d in 2001 when the 9/11 attacks occurred. 6. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) has become more politicized in recent years, and additional supply could also come from it over the weeks ahead should oil prices exceed $100 per barrel. 7. The attack was also rumored to have had the support of Russia since it draws attention away from its war in Ukraine. A second-order risk is that it may embolden China and North Korea in their territorial ambitions (Taiwan, S. Korea, etc.), especially as our government is distracted by electing a new House Speaker. We will closely monitor the events in the weeks ahead and follow the message from our key indicators and models. Still, historically, these events have proven to eventually provide buying opportunities. *\*All data sourced through Bloomberg.* | [![View Our Strategies](https://hubspot-no-cache-na2-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/cta/default/19651629/0f0d02a1-ab92-4994-b098-68cb6f2bae33.png)](https://hubspot-cta-redirect-na2-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/cta/redirect/19651629/0f0d02a1-ab92-4994-b098-68cb6f2bae33) | [![Contact Us Today](https://hubspot-no-cache-na2-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/cta/default/19651629/542864bc-0da7-4a08-9f27-df9bac129224.png)](https://hubspot-cta-redirect-na2-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/cta/redirect/19651629/542864bc-0da7-4a08-9f27-df9bac129224) | | --- | --- | ** You Might Also Like:**  - [**Having the Risk Tolerance Discussion**](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/blog/having-the-risk-tolerance-discussion) - [**"Talking Technicals." Interview with Kendall Dilley on Money Life with Chuck Jaffe**](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/blog/kendall-dilley-money-life-with-chuck-jaffe) - [**Changing Goals as Retirement Nears**](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/blog/changing-goals-as-retirement-nears) Investment advisory services are provided through Integrated Advisors Network, LLC (“Integrated”) a registered investment advisor. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. Vineyard Global Advisors, LLC is a practice group of Integrated. The opinions expressed herein are those of Vineyard Global Advisors and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to sell any product. Forward-looking statements cannot be guaranteed. This document may contain certain information that constitutes “forward-looking statements” which can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as “may,” “expect,” “will,” “hope,” “forecast,” “intend,” “target,” “believe,” and/or comparable terminology. No assurance, representation, or warranty is made by any person that any of Vineyard’s assumptions, expectations, objectives, and/or goals will be achieved. Nothing contained in this document may be relied upon as a guarantee, promise, assurance, or representation as to the future. Vineyard Global Advisors is an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. *Investment advisory services offered through Integrated Advisors Network, LLC (“Integrated), a registered investment advisor. Vineyard Global Advisors is a DBA of Integrated.* Investors cannot invest directly in an index. There is no guarantee that the investment objectives will be achieved. Moreover, past performance is not a guarantee or indicator of future results. Does not constitute advice or a recommendation or offer to sell or a solicitation to deal in any security or financial product. It is provided for information purposes only and on the understanding that the recipient has sufficient knowledge and experience to be able to understand and make their own evaluation of the proposals and services described herein, any risks associated therewith and any related legal, tax, accounting or other material considerations. Integrated is registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Registration of an investment adviser does not imply any specific level of skill or training and does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the Commission. Business is only transacted in states in which it is property registered or is excluded or exempted from registration. A copy of Integrated's and VGA's current written disclosure brochure filed with the SEC which discusses among other things, business practices, services and fees, is available through the SEC's website at: [www.adviserinfo.sec.gov](https://adviserinfo.sec.gov/?utm_campaign=advisor%20blog%20notices&utm_source=hs_email&utm_medium=email&_hsenc=p2anqtz-_vpysuhnv4rc3vj_dwz7lfh1rhhvpg9b9prvrlvy2m14u-a7zh16kobozkhnzfjzjma367) Previous [← A Hawkish Fed, a United Auto Workers Strike, and Concerns Over a Government Shutdown](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/commentary/september-market-update) Next [Resilience and Opportunity: Navigating the Current Market Landscape with Historical Insights and Forward-Looking Indicators →](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/commentary/resilience-and-opportunity) ## You May Also Like These Perspectives on Market Updates [![ft-img-new-bull-market-1](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/hubfs/ft-img-new-bull-market-1.jpg)](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/commentary/tom-samuelson-on-money-life-with-chuck-jaffe-june-2026) [Market Risk](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/commentary/tag/market-risk) ### [Tom Samuelson, CFA, CMT on Money Life with Chuck Jaffe](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/commentary/tom-samuelson-on-money-life-with-chuck-jaffe-june-2026) June 16, 2026 | 1 min read [![Cover Photo](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/hubfs/social-suggested-images/Cover%20Photo.png)](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/commentary/2026-first-quarter-review) [Market Updates](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/commentary/tag/market-updates) ### [2026 First Quarter Review](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/commentary/2026-first-quarter-review) May 05, 2026 | 1 min read [![Cover Photo](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/hubfs/social-suggested-images/Cover%20Photo.png)](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/commentary/2025-review-2026-outlook) [Market Updates](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/commentary/tag/market-updates) ### [2025 Review & 2026 Outlook](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/commentary/2025-review-2026-outlook) February 06, 2026 | 1 min read ### Subscribe to Vineyard Commentary ![Vineyard_GlobalAdvisors_logo_white](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/hs-fs/hubfs/Vineyard_GlobalAdvisors_logo_white.png?width=200&name=Vineyard_GlobalAdvisors_logo_white.png) 9800 Mt. Pyramid Ct. Suite 400 Englewood, CO 80112 [info@vineyardglobaladvisors.com](mailto:info@vineyardglobaladvisors.com) - [Our Firm](https://www.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/our-firm) - [Our Philosophy](https://www.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/our-philosophy) - [Insights](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/commentary) - [Contact Us](https://www.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/contact-us) - [Privacy Policy](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/hubfs/Regulatory/Privacy_Policy.pdf) - [Form ADV 2](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/hubfs/Regulatory/VGA_ADV_Part%202A_2B.pdf) - [Wrap Brochure](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/hubfs/Regulatory/VGA_WRAP_Brochure.pdf) - [Form CRS](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/hubfs/Regulatory/VGA_Form_CRS.pdf) Vineyard Global Advisors, LLC (“the Adviser”, “Vineyard Global Advisors”, or “VGA”) is a DBA of Integrated Advisors Network, LLC (“Integrated”). Integrated is an SEC registered investment advisor. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. VGA is affiliated with, but not under common control of, Integrated. More information about Vineyard Global Advisor, including our investment strategies, fees and objectives, can be found in our Form [ADV Part 2A](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/hubfs/VGA%20ADV2B.pdf) and our Form CRS. ### Subscribe to Vineyard Commentary Copyright © 2026 | Vineyard Global Advisors LLC | All Rights Reserved. ## Heading Text Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Cras eu mauris dapibus ante interdum tempor non eu metus. Vestibulum ante ipsum primis in faucibus orci luctus et ultrices posuere cubilia curae; Sed lobortis sodales consequat. [Call To Action 01](http://crawfordinvestment-8881895.hs-sites.com/) [Call To Action 02](http://crawfordinvestment-8881895.hs-sites.com/) ```json { "@context" : "https://schema.org", "@type" : "VideoObject", "caption" : { "@type" : "MediaObject", "contentUrl" : "https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/media-transcripts/212243519261/en.vtt", "inLanguage" : "en", "name" : "en Captions" }, "contentUrl" : "https://19651629.fs1.hubspotusercontent-na2.net/hubfs/19651629/Q1%202026%20Final%20Cut%20Review.mp4", "dateModified" : "2026-05-04T19:02:09.748Z", "duration" : "PT12M14S", "height" : 1080, "name" : "Q1 2026 Final Cut Review", "thumbnailUrl" : "https://api-na2.hubspot.com/filemanager/api/v3/files/thumbnail-redirect/212243519261?portalId=19651629&size=medium", "uploadDate" : "2026-05-04T18:59:49.618Z", "width" : 1920 } ``` ```json { "@context" : "https://schema.org", "@type" : "VideoObject", "caption" : { "@type" : "MediaObject", "contentUrl" : "https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/media-transcripts/207051797659/en.vtt", "inLanguage" : "en", "name" : "en Captions" }, "contentUrl" : "https://19651629.fs1.hubspotusercontent-na2.net/hubfs/19651629/2025%20Review%20&%202026%20Outlook.mp4", "dateModified" : "2026-02-09T16:55:15.798Z", "description" : "Join us for a detailed analysis of the 2025 year-end review and the outlook for 2026 as Tom Samuelson, Chief Investment Officer, and Kendall Dilley, Portfolio Manager, share their insights on market trends and investment strategies.\n\nIn this video, we cover:\n\n- **2025 Performance Overview**: A recap of a year marked by volatility, driven by the Trump administration's policies, including tariffs and deregulation that influenced investor confidence and market performance.\n \n- **2026 Predictions**: Insights into expected market conditions, highlighting the potential for a pullback due to stretched valuations, while remaining optimistic about the U.S. economy's resilience and growth prospects.\n\n- **Economic Indicators**: An analysis of strong economic growth, resilient consumer behavior, and moderating inflation, with expectations of further earnings growth and Federal Reserve actions in the coming year.\n\n- **Market Dynamics**: Discussion of the AI bull market and its parallels with past market trends, as well as the implications of valuation resets and interest rate fluctuations.\n\n- **Investment Strategy**: An overview of Vineyard's barbell approach, balancing exposure to secular growth themes and cyclical value, with a focus on sectors poised for growth, including technology, financials, and housing.\n\nKey takeaways include actionable insights on navigating market volatility, understanding the importance of economic indicators, and strategies for optimizing your investment portfolio in 2026. \n\nTune in for a comprehensive understanding of the current investment landscape and how to position your portfolio for success in the upcoming year. For more detailed data and charts, be sure to check out the supplemental materials provided.", "duration" : "PT11M37S", "hasPart" : [ { "@type" : "Clip", "endOffset" : 33, "name" : "Introduction and Agenda", "startOffset" : 0, "url" : "https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/commentary/the-hamas-attack-on-israel?videoId=207051637346&videoTs=0" }, { "@type" : "Clip", "endOffset" : 100, "name" : "2025 Year in Review", "startOffset" : 33, "url" : "https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/commentary/the-hamas-attack-on-israel?videoId=207051637346&videoTs=33" }, { "@type" : "Clip", "endOffset" : 200, "name" : "2026 Outlook and Predictions", "startOffset" : 100, "url" : "https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/commentary/the-hamas-attack-on-israel?videoId=207051637346&videoTs=100" }, { "@type" : "Clip", "endOffset" : 300, "name" : "US Economic Performance and Indicators", "startOffset" : 200, "url" : "https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/commentary/the-hamas-attack-on-israel?videoId=207051637346&videoTs=200" }, { "@type" : "Clip", "endOffset" : 435, "name" : "AI Bull Market and Analog Comparisons", "startOffset" : 300, "url" : "https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/commentary/the-hamas-attack-on-israel?videoId=207051637346&videoTs=300" }, { "@type" : "Clip", "endOffset" : 555, "name" : "Valuation Concerns and Risks", "startOffset" : 435, "url" : "https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/commentary/the-hamas-attack-on-israel?videoId=207051637346&videoTs=435" }, { "@type" : "Clip", "endOffset" : 697, "name" : "Investment Strategies and Sector Outlook", "startOffset" : 555, "url" : "https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/commentary/the-hamas-attack-on-israel?videoId=207051637346&videoTs=555" } ], "height" : 1080, "name" : "2025 Review & 2026 Outlook", "thumbnailUrl" : "https://api-na2.hubspot.com/filemanager/api/v3/files/thumbnail-redirect/207051797659?portalId=19651629&size=medium", "uploadDate" : "2026-02-06T17:36:20.966Z", "width" : 1920 } ```