More of a Red Ripple than a Red Wave

November 09, 2022

Here are a few thoughts on the US mid-term election...

  • Democrats did better than expected, narrowly losing the House and possibly keeping a split Senate. 
  • The markets expected a “Red wave” and a more significant shift to a pro-biz agenda. 
  • There will be a halt to additional progressive spending (which has contributed to inflation and made the Fed’s job to rein in inflation harder)
  • New corporate taxes are unlikely. 
  • Gridlock tends to be better for markets. 
  • Regardless of your political leanings, the analogs after mid-term elections are 100% positive over the next 6 months and 12 months (see below). 

Red Wave

Source: Bespoke

As always, we’ll let our indicators guide our strategy exposures, but we still think we can see some further year-end rally up to 4100-4200 S&P 500 (+5-10%), another pullback/correction in 1Q’23 and then a better year in 2023 than 2022.

Vineyard Global Advisors offers a range of investment strategies designed to allow participation in the market's growth within a dynamic, risk-managed framework that seeks to protect against significant market declines. Our goal is to give our clients greater peace of mind by generating steadier returns over time. Contact us to learn more. 

View Our Strategies Contact Us Today

Investment advisory services are provided through Integrated Advisors Network, LLC (“Integrated”) a registered investment advisor. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. Vineyard Global Advisors, LLC is a practice group of Integrated.

The opinions expressed herein are those of Vineyard Global Advisors and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to sell any product. Forward-looking statements cannot be guaranteed. This document may contain certain information that constitutes “forward-looking statements” which can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as “may,” “expect,” “will,” “hope,” “forecast,” “intend,” “target,” “believe,” and/or comparable terminology. No assurance, representation, or warranty is made by any person that any of Vineyard’s assumptions, expectations, objectives, and/or goals will be achieved. Nothing contained in this document may be relied upon as a guarantee, promise, assurance, or representation as to the future. Vineyard Global Advisors is an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. Investment advisory services offered through Integrated Advisors Network, LLC (“Integrated), a registered investment advisor. Vineyard Global Advisors is a DBA of Integrated.

Investors cannot invest directly in an index.

There is no guarantee that the investment objectives will be achieved. Moreover, past performance is not a guarantee or indicator of future results. Does not constitute advice or a recommendation or offer to sell or a solicitation to deal in any security or financial product. It is provided for information purposes only and on the understanding that the recipient has sufficient knowledge and experience to be able to understand and make their own evaluation of the proposals and services described herein, any risks associated therewith and any related legal, tax, accounting or other material considerations.

Integrated is registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Registration of an investment adviser does not imply any specific level of skill or training and does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the Commission. Business is only transacted in states in which it is property registered or is excluded or exempted from registration. A copy of Integrated's and VGA's current written disclosure brochure filed with the SEC which discusses among other things, business practices, services and fees, is available through the SEC's website at: