As we approach the middle of 2024, two crucial factors—anticipated inflation trends and historical election year patterns—are poised to shape market dynamics. Tom Samuelson, alongside insights from the Cleveland Fed's Inflation Nowcast, offers a promising outlook for the next few months.
The Cleveland Fed projects modest inflation rates of just 0.1% month-over-month for May and June 2024. These projections are significant as they align with the Federal Reserve's target to reduce year-over-year inflation to 2%. With 'base effects' from previous high inflation rates in late 2023, we anticipate more manageable comparisons in the upcoming months, potentially easing inflation concerns.
Historical data suggests a typical rally in the S&P 500 during election years, usually starting in late August. Bespoke's analysis supports this trend, predicting a mild mid-single-digit pullback in the next five months, followed by an upswing. Absent any major disruptions, we are looking at a potential increase to around 5593 on the S&P 500, which would be a 6% rise from the May close of 5277.
*Data sourced from Bespoke
Given these inflation forecasts and traditional election year trends, investors might see a stabilizing market conducive to growth. At Vineyard Global Advisors, we remain vigilant, ready to adapt our strategies to harness potential market opportunities as they arise.
Stay connected for ongoing updates and strategic insights aimed at maximizing your investment outcomes.
![]() |
![]() |
Investment advisory services are provided through Integrated Advisors Network, LLC (“Integrated”) a registered investment advisor. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. Vineyard Global Advisors, LLC is a practice group of Integrated.
The opinions expressed herein are those of Vineyard Global Advisors and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to sell any product. Forward-looking statements cannot be guaranteed. This document may contain certain information that constitutes “forward-looking statements” which can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as “may,” “expect,” “will,” “hope,” “forecast,” “intend,” “target,” “believe,” and/or comparable terminology. No assurance, representation, or warranty is made by any person that any of Vineyard’s assumptions, expectations, objectives, and/or goals will be achieved. Nothing contained in this document may be relied upon as a guarantee, promise, assurance, or representation as to the future. Vineyard Global Advisors is an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. Investment advisory services offered through Integrated Advisors Network, LLC (“Integrated), a registered investment advisor. Vineyard Global Advisors is a DBA of Integrated.
Investors cannot invest directly in an index.
There is no guarantee that the investment objectives will be achieved. Moreover, past performance is not a guarantee or indicator of future results. Does not constitute advice or a recommendation or offer to sell or a solicitation to deal in any security or financial product. It is provided for information purposes only and on the understanding that the recipient has sufficient knowledge and experience to be able to understand and make their own evaluation of the proposals and services described herein, any risks associated therewith and any related legal, tax, accounting or other material considerations.
Integrated is registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Registration of an investment adviser does not imply any specific level of skill or training and does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the Commission. Business is only transacted in states in which it is property registered or is excluded or exempted from registration. A copy of Integrated's and VGA's current written disclosure brochure filed with the SEC which discusses among other things, business practices, services and fees, is available through the SEC's website at: www.adviserinfo.sec.gov
These Perspectives on Market Updates
Vineyard Global Advisors, LLC (“the Adviser”, “Vineyard Global Advisors”, or “VGA”) is a DBA of Integrated Advisors Network, LLC (“Integrated”). Integrated is an SEC registered investment advisor. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. VGA is affiliated with, but not under common control of, Integrated.
More information about Vineyard Global Advisor, including our investment strategies, fees and objectives, can be found in our Form ADV Part 2A and our Form CRS.
Copyright © 2024 | Vineyard Global Advisors LLC | All Rights Reserved.
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Cras eu mauris dapibus ante interdum tempor non eu metus. Vestibulum ante ipsum primis in faucibus orci luctus et ultrices posuere cubilia curae; Sed lobortis sodales consequat.