“Some Signs of Trouble Appear. But, A Year-end Rally is Still Possible.” Interview with Tom Samuelson on Money Life with Chuck Jaffe

Nov 20, 2023 11:28:41 AM


“Some Signs of Trouble Appear. But, A Year-end Rally is Still Possible.” Interview with Vineyard Global Advisors Chief Investment Officer Tom Samuelson, CFA, CMT 

Vineyard Global Advisors CIO Tom Samuelson joined Money Life with Chuck Jaffe for a dynamic conversation about the market showing signs of breakdown, and while you can still find one or two positive indicators, the bearish signs are out, suggesting a downturn is coming. However, he thinks the decline will stop short of being a "hard landing.".

In this interview, Tom points out that the investment backdrop has turned mixed.  But, emphasized some strong positives, like the stock market’s short-term oversold condition and favorable seasonality that supports a year-end rally.

Enjoy this Podcast Segment featuring Tom Samuelson. To listen to the full podcast, visit the Money Life with Chuck Jaffe website.

What is your assessment of the current state of the S&P 500 and related markets?

We observed a significant deterioration across the S&P 500, including small-cap and mid-cap stocks. The average company and the percentage of stocks above their 200-day moving average or in long-term uptrends had decreased to around 25%. This level of deterioration is not characteristic of a healthy bull market.

How do your views reflect on the health of the overall stock market? 

My analysis indicates a weakening in the stock market's health. The low percentage of stocks maintaining their position above the 200-day moving average or staying in long-term uptrends suggests that the market is not exhibiting the robust characteristics typically seen in a strong, bullish market environment.

Do you believe the market is heading towards a "hard landing"?

There is concern about the market's current state, and although there is significant deterioration, I do not believe the market is headed for a "hard landing." While some storm clouds appear on the investment horizon, a year-end rally is still possible

Listen to the Full Podcast Here


Host: Chuck Jaffe, Money Life.

Guest: Tom Samuelson, CIO of Vineyard Global Advisors

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