"Technical Indicators are on the Cusp of a New Bull Market," Interview with Tom Samuelson on Money Life with Chuck Jaffe

Feb 8, 2023 10:17:27 AM

Tom-1-1"Technical Indicators are on the Cusp of a New Bull Market,"– Interview with Vineyard Global Advisors Chief Investment Officer Tom Samuelson, CFA, CMT 

Vineyard Global Advisors CIO Tom Samuelson joined Money Life with Chuck Jaffe for a dynamic conversation about the technical indicators that may suggest a better year for investors in 2023.

In this interview, Chuck and Tom explore the technicals that paint a markedly different market outlook than many of the other gloomy fundamental forecasts. Tom cites indicators and macro models and the historical analogs that indicate 2023 will likely experience volatility, particularly in the first quarter, with a bullish outlook as the year progresses.

Enjoy this Podcast Segment featuring Tom Samuelson. To listen to the full podcast, visit the Money Life with Chuck Jaffe website.

Could December Lows Signal a Slowing of Downside Participation and the Underpinnings of a Bottom?

When we hit that low in June of 2022, we were looking very closely to see if the number of stocks making new 52-week lows in October would diminish, which it did. Then as we hit another low in December, it decreased further. So, the market's telling you that the downside participation is drying up. and we're starting to see the underpinnings of a bottom.

Why the Gloomy Results of 2022 Indicate a Potentially Bullish End to 2023. 

2022 was a bad year that finished on a bad note. The S & P 500 was down 18%, while December was down 6%. Historically, eight distinctly bearish years have also finished poorly in December, and every single one has been up the following year at an average of 21%. Our models suggest volatility on our way to a bullish backdrop toward the end of 2023.

Global Indices Point Toward Broad-Based Growth.

The strongest bull markets are broad-based. 81% of global indices are now above their 200-day moving average. That's their long-term trend versus only 10% in October. So, many of the positive indicators typically seen at the cusp of a new bull market are falling into place. 

Listen to the Full Podcast Here....

Host: Chuck Jaffe, Money Life.

Guest: Tom Samuelson, CIO of Vineyard Global Advisors

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