--- title: "\"Recession Risk is Elevated, Raising Prospects of a Deeper Market Decline\" Interview with Tom Samuelson on Money Life with Chuck Jaffe" description: Vineyard Global Advisors Chief Investment Officer Tom Samuelson, CFA, CMT, joined Money Life with Chuck Jaffe to discuss the impact of a recession. image: https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/hubfs/ft-img-recession-risk-is-elevated.jpg --- [![Vineyard Global Advisors](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/hs-fs/hubfs/Vineyard_GlobalAdvisors_logo_transparent.png?width=250&height=87&name=Vineyard_GlobalAdvisors_logo_transparent.png "Vineyard Global Advisors")](https://www.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/) - [Home](https://www.vineyardglobaladvisors.com) - [Our Firm](https://www.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/our-firm) - [Philosophy](https://www.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/our-philosophy) - Strategies - [Strategy Overview](https://www.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/strategies) - Equity Alpha - [Quantitative Value](https://www.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/quantitative-value) - [Quantitative Growth](https://www.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/quantitative-growth) - [Sector Rotation](https://www.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/sector-rotation) - [Style Flex](https://www.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/style-flex) - [Optimized Equity Alpha](https://www.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/optimized-equity-alpha) - [Enhanced S&P 500](https://www.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/enhanced-500) - Income - [Russell 3000 Enhanced Dividend](https://www.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/russell-3000) - [Dynamic Yield](https://www.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/dynamic-yield) - [Risk Managed Income](https://www.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/risk-managed-income) - [Global Fixed Income](https://www.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/global-fixed-income) - Asset Allocation - [Advantage Plus Series](https://www.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/advantage-plus-series) - [Allocation Plus Series](https://www.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/allocation-plus-series) - [ETF Advantage Series](https://www.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/etf-advantage-series) - Insights - [Market Commentary](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/commentary) - [Quarterly Webinars](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/commentary/tag/webinars) - [In The News](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/blog/tag/in-the-news) - [Blog](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/blog) - [For Advisors](https://www.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/wealth-advisors) - Contact - [Contact Us](https://www.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/contact-us) - [Request for Proposal](https://www.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/request-for-proposal) ![VGA_Hero](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/hubfs/VGA_Hero.jpg) [Webinars](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/blog/tag/webinars) | [Media](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/blog/tag/media) | [In The News](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/blog/tag/in-the-news) | 1 min read # "Recession Risk is Elevated, Raising Prospects of a Deeper Market Decline" Interview with Tom Samuelson on Money Life with Chuck Jaffe Written by [VGA Investment Team](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/blog/author/vga-investment-team) Sep 21, 2022 9:16:06 AM # ![Tom-1-1](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/hs-fs/hubfs/Tom-1-1.jpg?width=255&name=Tom-1-1.jpg)"Recession Risk is Elevated, Raising Prospects of a Deeper Market Decline"– Interview with Vineyard Global Advisors Chief Investment Officer Tom Samuelson, CFA, CMT  Vineyard Global Advisors Chief Investment Officer Tom Samuelson, CFA, CMT, joined Money Life with Chuck Jaffe for a frank conversation about the impact of a recession and what it means to investors. In this interview, Chuck and Tom explore last week's inflation news and other current conditions that have increased the potential for a recession. He notes that the historical decline for a bear market with a recession is 35 percent, which will have the market testing June lows and likely going deeper, potentially dropping the Standard & Poor's 500 to the 3,000 to 3,200 range. *Enjoy this Podcast.* How The June Lows Determine Where We Go Next. Is a Recession Probable? *The Fed has aggressively raised interest rates. With inflation at 8.3%, it’s expected the Fed will raise an additional 200 basis points.  They’re going to take interest rates from two and one half to four and one half percent, increasing the probability of a recession.* **Why Recessions Matter; the Proof Is In the Metrics. ** *Recessions matter from two critical perspectives. One, people lose their jobs. Two, earnings go down, and stocks fall. For example, earnings in a typical recession decline by 20%, while stocks decline an average of 35%. That would take the S&P down to 3000 to 3200.* **If We Face a Market Decline, When Can We Anticipate a Rebound?** *Historically, a recession typically lasts about a year. If we establish the beginning of the recession as the second quarter of this year, that will take us out to April of next year. The good news is the market typically bottoms before the recession's end anywhere from one month to eight months. So we could see the beginnings of a rebound in the stock market towards the end of this year.* [*Listen to the Full Podcast Here....*](https://moneylifeshow.libsyn.com/recession-risk-is-elevated-raising-prospects-of-a-deeper-market-decline?tdest_id=2391335) Host: Chuck Jaffe, Money Life. Guest: Tom Samuelson, CIO of Vineyard Global Advisors   [![Learn more about Vineyard Global Advisors’ investment strategies.](https://hubspot-no-cache-na2-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/cta/default/19651629/f072f4f7-b638-4b1c-b636-323b7e67ce25.png)](https://hubspot-cta-redirect-na2-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/cta/redirect/19651629/f072f4f7-b638-4b1c-b636-323b7e67ce25) [![View Our Strategies](https://hubspot-no-cache-na2-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/cta/default/19651629/0f0d02a1-ab92-4994-b098-68cb6f2bae33.png)](https://hubspot-cta-redirect-na2-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/cta/redirect/19651629/0f0d02a1-ab92-4994-b098-68cb6f2bae33) [![Contact Us Today](https://hubspot-no-cache-na2-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/cta/default/19651629/542864bc-0da7-4a08-9f27-df9bac129224.png)](https://hubspot-cta-redirect-na2-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/cta/redirect/19651629/542864bc-0da7-4a08-9f27-df9bac129224) Investment advisory services are provided through Integrated Advisors Network, LLC (“Integrated”) a registered investment advisor. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. Vineyard Global Advisors, LLC is a practice group of Integrated. The opinions expressed herein are those of Vineyard Global Advisors and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to sell any product. Forward-looking statements cannot be guaranteed. This document may contain certain information that constitutes “forward-looking statements” which can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as “may,” “expect,” “will,” “hope,” “forecast,” “intend,” “target,” “believe,” and/or comparable terminology. No assurance, representation, or warranty is made by any person that any of Vineyard’s assumptions, expectations, objectives, and/or goals will be achieved. Nothing contained in this document may be relied upon as a guarantee, promise, assurance, or representation as to the future. 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A copy of Integrated's and VGA's current written disclosure brochure filed with the SEC which discusses among other things, business practices, services and fees, is available through the SEC's website at: [www.adviserinfo.sec.gov](https://adviserinfo.sec.gov/?utm_campaign=advisor%20blog%20notices&utm_source=hs_email&utm_medium=email&_hsenc=p2anqtz-_vpysuhnv4rc3vj_dwz7lfh1rhhvpg9b9prvrlvy2m14u-a7zh16kobozkhnzfjzjma367) Previous [← "How Much Will the Fed Raise Interest Rates This Week?" Interview with Tom Samuelson in International Business Times](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/blog/how-much-will-the-fed-raise-interest-rates) Next [The Different Vintages of Investor Types →](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/blog/vintages-of-investor-types) ## You May Also Like These Perspectives on Webinars [![ft-img-new-bull-market-1](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/hubfs/ft-img-new-bull-market-1.jpg)](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/blog/money-life-with-chuck-jaffe-1-0) [Webinars](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/blog/tag/webinars) ### [“Some Signs of Trouble Appear. But, A Year-end Rally is Still Possible.” Interview with Tom Samuelson on Money Life with Chuck Jaffe](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/blog/money-life-with-chuck-jaffe-1-0) Nov 20, 2023 12:28:41 PM | 1 min read [![ft-img-new-bull-market-1](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/hubfs/ft-img-new-bull-market-1.jpg)](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/blog/money-life-with-chuck-jaffe-1) [Webinars](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/blog/tag/webinars) ### ["Technical Indicators are on the Cusp of a New Bull Market," Interview with Tom Samuelson on Money Life with Chuck Jaffe](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/blog/money-life-with-chuck-jaffe-1) Feb 8, 2023 11:17:27 AM | 1 min read [![ft-img-the-time-for-cloud-stocks-may-be-now-1](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/hubfs/ft-img-the-time-for-cloud-stocks-may-be-now-1.jpg)](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/blog/the-time-for-cloud-stocks-may-be-now) [Webinars](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/blog/tag/webinars) ### ["The Time for Cloud Stocks May Be Now" Interview with Tom Samuelson on the Market Beat Podcast](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/blog/the-time-for-cloud-stocks-may-be-now) Sep 15, 2022 1:54:40 PM | 1 min read ### Subscribe to Vineyard Commentary ![Vineyard_GlobalAdvisors_logo_white](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/hs-fs/hubfs/Vineyard_GlobalAdvisors_logo_white.png?width=200&name=Vineyard_GlobalAdvisors_logo_white.png) 9800 Mt. 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