All major US stock indices are currently trading above rising 200-d day moving averages, with their 50-day moving averages above their 200-day. Plus the market is in good shape from a macro quantitative perspective, as our macro models remain bullish.
Historically, we can expect a positive Nov-Dec on the order of +4-5%, with odds strongly in the favor of the bulls.
See stats and analogs below:
Source: Carson
As of this writing, we don’t yet know how October will finish. But, as of now, the S&P 500 is +20.1% year-to-date. Note the analogs below for historic returns (since WW-II) for Nov-Dec and Nov-Jan when the S&P 500’s returns have been above-average thru October year-to-date.
Source: VGA, data sourced through Bloomberg
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