--- title: Is the U.S. Economy In a Recession? Interview with Tom Samuelson on The Street. description: "\"Is the U.S. Economy In a Recession? (And, What's a Recession?) Interview with Tom Samuelson on The Street." image: https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/hubfs/ft-img-is-the-us-in-a-recession.jpg --- [![Vineyard Global Advisors](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/hs-fs/hubfs/Vineyard_GlobalAdvisors_logo_transparent.png?width=250&height=87&name=Vineyard_GlobalAdvisors_logo_transparent.png "Vineyard Global Advisors")](https://www.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/) - [Home](https://www.vineyardglobaladvisors.com) - [Our Firm](https://www.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/our-firm) - [Philosophy](https://www.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/our-philosophy) - Strategies - [Strategy Overview](https://www.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/strategies) - Equity Alpha - [Quantitative Value](https://www.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/quantitative-value) - [Quantitative Growth](https://www.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/quantitative-growth) - [Sector Rotation](https://www.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/sector-rotation) - [Style Flex](https://www.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/style-flex) - [Optimized Equity Alpha](https://www.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/optimized-equity-alpha) - [Enhanced S&P 500](https://www.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/enhanced-500) - Income - [Russell 3000 Enhanced Dividend](https://www.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/russell-3000) - [Dynamic Yield](https://www.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/dynamic-yield) - [Risk Managed Income](https://www.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/risk-managed-income) - [Global Fixed Income](https://www.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/global-fixed-income) - Asset Allocation - [Advantage Plus Series](https://www.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/advantage-plus-series) - [Allocation Plus Series](https://www.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/allocation-plus-series) - [ETF Advantage Series](https://www.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/etf-advantage-series) - Insights - [Market Commentary](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/commentary) - [Quarterly Webinars](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/commentary/tag/webinars) - [In The News](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/blog/tag/in-the-news) - [Blog](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/blog) - [For Advisors](https://www.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/wealth-advisors) - Contact - [Contact Us](https://www.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/contact-us) - [Request for Proposal](https://www.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/request-for-proposal) ![VGA_Hero](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/hubfs/VGA_Hero.jpg) [Media](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/blog/tag/media) | [In The News](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/blog/tag/in-the-news) | 1 min read # Is the U.S. Economy In a Recession? Interview with Tom Samuelson on The Street. Written by [VGA Investment Team](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/blog/author/vga-investment-team) Aug 18, 2022 11:31:34 AM # ![Tom-1-1](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/hs-fs/hubfs/Tom-1-1.jpg?width=274&name=Tom-1-1.jpg) # "Is the U.S. Economy in a Recession? (And, What's a Recession?)"– Interview with Vineyard Global Advisors Chief Investment Officer Tom Samuelson. Tom Samuelson, CFA, CMT, shared his expert insights with the staff of The Street about the current state of the U.S. economy in this timely interview.  Though often used as a buzzword in the current news cycle, a recession carries a precise definition placing it beyond mere speculation into a clearly quantifiable context. Tom Samuelson sets the record straight about recession, the traditional measurements used to identify one, and the market indicators that could signal an upward trend.  How Many Quarters Does It Take to Equal a Recession? *By conventional definition, we are already in a mild recession with two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, but will we stay there?* **Why Regulators Must Pay Close Attention to Market Benchmarks.** *Have we hit the average bear market decline percentage to signal an upward trend?* **Can Record Low Unemployment Make This a Mild Recession?** *Can a strong labor market offset the severity of a recession's effects and redefine what recession means?* [Read Full Article...](https://www.thestreet.com/investing/if-this-is-a-recession-its-a-pretty-weird-one) Author: The Street staff Interviewee: Tom Samuelson, CIO of Vineyard Global Advisors [![Learn more about Vineyard Global Advisors’ investment strategies.](https://hubspot-no-cache-na2-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/cta/default/19651629/f072f4f7-b638-4b1c-b636-323b7e67ce25.png)](https://hubspot-cta-redirect-na2-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/cta/redirect/19651629/f072f4f7-b638-4b1c-b636-323b7e67ce25) [![View Our Strategies](https://hubspot-no-cache-na2-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/cta/default/19651629/0f0d02a1-ab92-4994-b098-68cb6f2bae33.png)](https://hubspot-cta-redirect-na2-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/cta/redirect/19651629/0f0d02a1-ab92-4994-b098-68cb6f2bae33) [![Contact Us Today](https://hubspot-no-cache-na2-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/cta/default/19651629/542864bc-0da7-4a08-9f27-df9bac129224.png)](https://hubspot-cta-redirect-na2-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/cta/redirect/19651629/542864bc-0da7-4a08-9f27-df9bac129224) Investment advisory services are provided through Integrated Advisors Network, LLC (“Integrated”) a registered investment advisor. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. Vineyard Global Advisors, LLC is a practice group of Integrated. The opinions expressed herein are those of Vineyard Global Advisors and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to sell any product. Forward-looking statements cannot be guaranteed. This document may contain certain information that constitutes “forward-looking statements” which can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as “may,” “expect,” “will,” “hope,” “forecast,” “intend,” “target,” “believe,” and/or comparable terminology. No assurance, representation, or warranty is made by any person that any of Vineyard’s assumptions, expectations, objectives, and/or goals will be achieved. Nothing contained in this document may be relied upon as a guarantee, promise, assurance, or representation as to the future. Vineyard Global Advisors is an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. *Investment advisory services offered through Integrated Advisors Network, LLC (“Integrated), a registered investment advisor. Vineyard Global Advisors is a DBA of Integrated.* Investors cannot invest directly in an index. There is no guarantee that the investment objectives will be achieved. Moreover, past performance is not a guarantee or indicator of future results. Does not constitute advice or a recommendation or offer to sell or a solicitation to deal in any security or financial product. It is provided for information purposes only and on the understanding that the recipient has sufficient knowledge and experience to be able to understand and make their own evaluation of the proposals and services described herein, any risks associated therewith and any related legal, tax, accounting or other material considerations. Integrated is registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Registration of an investment adviser does not imply any specific level of skill or training and does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the Commission. Business is only transacted in states in which it is property registered or is excluded or exempted from registration. A copy of Integrated's and VGA's current written disclosure brochure filed with the SEC which discusses among other things, business practices, services and fees, is available through the SEC's website at: [www.adviserinfo.sec.gov](https://adviserinfo.sec.gov/?utm_campaign=advisor%20blog%20notices&utm_source=hs_email&utm_medium=email&_hsenc=p2anqtz-_vpysuhnv4rc3vj_dwz7lfh1rhhvpg9b9prvrlvy2m14u-a7zh16kobozkhnzfjzjma367) Previous [← "The Bear Market Arrives" Interview with Tom Samuelson on the Gravity Exists Podcast](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/blog/quarterly-webinar-replay-q4-2021-0-0) Next [How the Bear Market Brings Investor Opportunities; Q2 Webinar Key Takeaways →](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/blog/get-off-the-emotional-roller-coaster-let-data-driven-methods-be-your-guide-1) ## You May Also Like These Perspectives on Media [![ft-img-new-bull-market-1](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/hubfs/ft-img-new-bull-market-1.jpg)](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/blog/money-life-with-chuck-jaffe-kendall-dilley-11-22-24) [Media](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/blog/tag/media) ### [Kendall Dilley, CFA, CMT on Money Life with Chuck Jaffe](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/blog/money-life-with-chuck-jaffe-kendall-dilley-11-22-24) Dec 4, 2024 8:50:35 AM | 1 min read [![ft-img-seven-best-commodity-stocks-to-own](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/hubfs/ft-img-seven-best-commodity-stocks-to-own.jpg)](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/blog/tom-samuelson-on-morning-live-trade-october-16th) [Media](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/blog/tag/media) ### ["Amazingly Resilient" Markets Before U.S. Election - Tom Samuelson, CFA, CMT, on Schwab Network's Morning Trade Live.](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/blog/tom-samuelson-on-morning-live-trade-october-16th) Oct 17, 2024 8:51:22 AM | 1 min read [![video-thumbnail-the-winemaking-analogy](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/hubfs/Video/thumbnails/video-thumbnail-the-winemaking-analogy.jpg)](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/blog/harvesting-success-the-philosophy-of-vga) [Media](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/blog/tag/media) ### [Harvesting Success: The Philosophy of Vineyard Global Advisors](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/blog/harvesting-success-the-philosophy-of-vga) Dec 6, 2023 2:42:58 PM | 2 min read ### Subscribe to Vineyard Commentary ![Vineyard_GlobalAdvisors_logo_white](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/hs-fs/hubfs/Vineyard_GlobalAdvisors_logo_white.png?width=200&name=Vineyard_GlobalAdvisors_logo_white.png) 9800 Mt. 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[Call To Action 01](http://crawfordinvestment-8881895.hs-sites.com/) [Call To Action 02](http://crawfordinvestment-8881895.hs-sites.com/) ```json { "@context" : "https://schema.org", "@type" : "VideoObject", "caption" : { "@type" : "MediaObject", "contentUrl" : "https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/media-transcripts/183508235686/en.vtt", "inLanguage" : "en", "name" : "en Captions" }, "contentUrl" : "https://19651629.fs1.hubspotusercontent-na2.net/hubfs/19651629/11.22.24_Kendall%20Dilley.mp4", "dateModified" : "2025-10-31T16:25:45.432Z", "duration" : "PT7M47S", "height" : 1082, "name" : "11.22.24_Kendall Dilley", "thumbnailUrl" : "https://19651629.fs1.hubspotusercontent-na1.net/hubfs/19651629/11.22.24_Kendall%20Dilley.mp4/medium.jpg?t=1761927945432", "uploadDate" : "2024-12-04T15:47:44.024Z", "width" : 1502 } ``` ```json { "@context" : "https://schema.org", "@type" : "VideoObject", "caption" : { "@type" : "MediaObject", "contentUrl" : "https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/media-transcripts/148048321559/en.vtt", "inLanguage" : "en", "name" : "en Captions" }, "contentUrl" : "https://19651629.fs1.hubspotusercontent-na2.net/hubfs/19651629/Video/vga-the-winemaking-analogy.mp4", "dateModified" : "2025-10-31T16:20:29.472Z", "duration" : "PT2M14S", "height" : 2160, "name" : "vga-the-winemaking-analogy", "thumbnailUrl" : "https://19651629.fs1.hubspotusercontent-na1.net/hubfs/19651629/Video/vga-the-winemaking-analogy.mp4/medium.jpg?t=1761927629472", "uploadDate" : "2023-12-01T01:20:21.904Z", "width" : 3840 } ```