Vineyard Global Advisors Chief Investment Officer Thomas Samuelson, CFA, CMT joined Gravity Exists for a deep dive into the state of the economy in a timely interview entitled “The Bear Market Arrives.”
The podcast interview focused on the macro backdrop, where VGA weighs the pros and cons and how the firm applies a managed risk approach that seeks lower volatility returns between the long-only and hedge fund space.
Enjoy this Podcast.
2021 -Not the Norm + A Perfect Bullish Storm
A typical bullish storm led to an expected bear market. With a 70% rebound in earnings last year and the highest inflation rate since 1981, could we see a significant buying opportunity on the horizon?
2022- As Expected, The Bear Market Arrives
Contributors included the Fed tightening cycle, higher interest rates, higher inflation, and continued stock market re-valuation.
When Will The Stock Market Bottom?
Without recession-3500 -3600 S&P 500=4-8% lower, a 23% decline.
With recession- 3100-3200 S&P 500= 15-18% lower, 33% decline
The Bottom Line
The potential for a significant buying opportunity exists, and VGA’s playbook of strategies is well-positioned to add value to investor portfolios based on experience managing risk in markets across multiple asset classes. Energy is an example of one sector that’s top of mind and which VGA continues to watch. High-quality dividend stocks have held up this year and are an attractive defensive play.
Host: Andrew Barber, Founder Gravity Exists
Presenter: Tom Samuelson, CIO of Vineyard Global Advisors
Original Broadcast: Wednesday, July 13, 2022
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