--- title: Midterm Election Takeaways description: Midterm election results and year end outlooks. Valuation updates. image: https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/hubfs/US_House_2026.svg --- [![Vineyard Global Advisors](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/hs-fs/hubfs/Vineyard_GlobalAdvisors_logo_transparent.png?width=250&height=87&name=Vineyard_GlobalAdvisors_logo_transparent.png "Vineyard Global Advisors")](https://www.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/) - [Home](https://www.vineyardglobaladvisors.com) - [Our Firm](https://www.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/our-firm) - [Philosophy](https://www.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/our-philosophy) - Strategies - [Strategy Overview](https://www.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/strategies) - Equity Alpha - [Quantitative Value](https://www.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/quantitative-value) - [Quantitative Growth](https://www.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/quantitative-growth) - [Sector Rotation](https://www.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/sector-rotation) - [Style Flex](https://www.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/style-flex) - [Optimized Equity Alpha](https://www.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/optimized-equity-alpha) - [Enhanced S&P 500](https://www.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/enhanced-500) - Income - [Russell 3000 Enhanced Dividend](https://www.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/russell-3000) - [Dynamic Yield](https://www.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/dynamic-yield) - [Risk Managed Income](https://www.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/risk-managed-income) - [Global Fixed Income](https://www.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/global-fixed-income) - Asset Allocation - [Advantage Plus Series](https://www.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/advantage-plus-series) - [Allocation Plus Series](https://www.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/allocation-plus-series) - [ETF Advantage Series](https://www.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/etf-advantage-series) - Insights - [Market Commentary](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/commentary) - [Quarterly Webinars](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/commentary/tag/webinars) - [In The News](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/blog/tag/in-the-news) - [Blog](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/blog) - [For Advisors](https://www.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/wealth-advisors) - Contact - [Contact Us](https://www.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/contact-us) - [Request for Proposal](https://www.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/request-for-proposal) ![VGA\_Hero](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/hubfs/VGA_Hero.jpg) [Market Updates](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/commentary/tag/market-updates) | 2 min read # Midterm Election Takeaways Written by [VGA Investment Team](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/commentary/author/vga-investment-team) November 06, 2026 # **Midterm Election Takeaways, Valuation, and Seasonality.** Democrats will take back control of the House and the US Senate following the 2026 midterm election. Equity markets have been mixed since the results, with futures whipsawing overnight Tuesday and rallying on Wednesday, with Thursday's price action largely negative. Global markets are also likely sensitive to the 29% plunge in Brazil’s stock market late last month after leftward-leaning Luiz Lula de Silva defeated right-of-center Jair Bolsonaro. However, gridlock has often been positive for markets and the analogs of mid-term years favor positive returns through year-end and over the next 12 months. See the table below. The S&P 500 has posted an average gain of +19.2% over the 12 months following US midterm elections with 100% of instances (21/21) positive. We will be watching our risk metrics closely over the days ahead for signs of deterioration that may signal a deeper decline, but our inclination is to look to stay positioned for a year-end rally. Should our indicators suggest otherwise, we will adjust accordingly. Below is some interesting analysis on what can and cannot transpire with a new Democratic Congress under a Trump Presidency for the next 2 years below the S&P 500 midterm table. ![](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/hs-fs/hubfs/undefined-Nov-05-2026-02-11-14-0114-PM.png?width=2590&height=1088&name=undefined-Nov-05-2026-02-11-14-0114-PM.png) Source: VGA, data sourced through Bloomberg Additionally, some notes on valuation: The S&P 500 (SPX) forward P/E currently at 18.8x, down 4.4pts over the last year. The S&P 500 forward P/E has declined by at least 4pts over the course of a year six times since 1983. What makes this situation unprecedented is that SPX has also rose 10.8% over the past year, making it the only instance of \> 4pt forward P/E decline alongside SPX rising. Following SPX forward P/E declines of at least 4pts in a year, returns were pretty strong w/ +1yr +10.4% on average, median +7.8%, 83.3% positive. ![](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/hs-fs/hubfs/undefined.jpeg?width=641&height=492&name=undefined.jpeg) Source: Ned Davis Research![](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/hs-fs/hubfs/undefined-1.jpeg?width=681&height=545&name=undefined-1.jpeg) Source: Ned Davis Research  ![](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/hs-fs/hubfs/undefined-2.jpeg?width=671&height=535&name=undefined-2.jpeg) Source: Ned Davis Research  Finally, a note on year end seasonality. We are now entering the best 1 month and 3 month period for the S&P 500 Index, as shown below. ![](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/hs-fs/hubfs/image-png-Nov-05-2026-02-14-32-6961-PM.png?width=628&height=194&name=image-png-Nov-05-2026-02-14-32-6961-PM.png)Source: Ned Davis Research [![View Our Strategies](https://hubspot-no-cache-na2-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/cta/default/19651629/0f0d02a1-ab92-4994-b098-68cb6f2bae33.png)](https://hubspot-cta-redirect-na2-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/cta/redirect/19651629/0f0d02a1-ab92-4994-b098-68cb6f2bae33) [![Contact Us Today](https://hubspot-no-cache-na2-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/cta/default/19651629/542864bc-0da7-4a08-9f27-df9bac129224.png)](https://hubspot-cta-redirect-na2-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/cta/redirect/19651629/542864bc-0da7-4a08-9f27-df9bac129224) Investment advisory services are provided through Integrated Advisors Network, LLC (“Integrated”) a registered investment advisor. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. Vineyard Global Advisors, LLC is a practice group of Integrated. The opinions expressed herein are those of Vineyard Global Advisors and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to sell any product. Forward-looking statements cannot be guaranteed. This document may contain certain information that constitutes “forward-looking statements” which can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as “may,” “expect,” “will,” “hope,” “forecast,” “intend,” “target,” “believe,” and/or comparable terminology. No assurance, representation, or warranty is made by any person that any of Vineyard’s assumptions, expectations, objectives, and/or goals will be achieved. Nothing contained in this document may be relied upon as a guarantee, promise, assurance, or representation as to the future. Vineyard Global Advisors is an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. *Investment advisory services offered through Integrated Advisors Network, LLC (“Integrated), a registered investment advisor. Vineyard Global Advisors is a DBA of Integrated.* The **S&P 500 Index** is a stock market index that tracks the performance of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. It is market-capitalization-weighted, meaning companies with a larger market value have a greater impact on the index. The S&P 500 is widely used as a benchmark for the U.S. equity market and provides a broad representation of various sectors of the economy, including technology, healthcare, financials, and consumer goods. It is often used by investors to gauge overall market performance and to compare the returns of individual investment portfolios. This document contains performance data that references the S&P 500 Index (the "Index"). The S&P 500 Index is a market capitalization-weighted index of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the U.S., and is widely regarded as a benchmark for the U.S. equity market. Please note that the S&P 500 Index is unmanaged and does not include transaction costs, fees, or expenses associated with the purchase or sale of securities. Unlike the performance of the Fund, which may be subject to fees, the performance of the Index does not reflect the impact of these costs. Index returns are typically gross returns, unless otherwise specified. Past performance of the Fund or its manager is not indicative of future results, and there can be no assurance that the Fund will outperform or track the performance of the S&P 500 Index or any other benchmark. The S&P 500 Index is used solely for comparison purposes and does not reflect any investment strategy or portfolio. It is not possible to directly invest in the S&P 500 Index. There is no guarantee that the investment objectives will be achieved. Moreover, past performance is not a guarantee or indicator of future results. Does not constitute advice or a recommendation or offer to sell or a solicitation to deal in any security or financial product. It is provided for information purposes only and on the understanding that the recipient has sufficient knowledge and experience to be able to understand and make their own evaluation of the proposals and services described herein, any risks associated therewith and any related legal, tax, accounting or other material considerations. Integrated is registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Registration of an investment adviser does not imply any specific level of skill or training and does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the Commission. Business is only transacted in states in which it is property registered or is excluded or exempted from registration. A copy of Integrated's and VGA's current written disclosure brochure filed with the SEC which discusses among other things, business practices, services and fees, is available through the SEC's website at: [www.adviserinfo.sec.gov](https://adviserinfo.sec.gov/?utm_campaign=advisor%20blog%20notices&utm_source=hs_email&utm_medium=email&_hsenc=p2anqtz-_vpysuhnv4rc3vj_dwz7lfh1rhhvpg9b9prvrlvy2m14u-a7zh16kobozkhnzfjzjma367) Previous [← Q3 2026 Review & Year End Outlook](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/commentary/q3-2026-review) ## You May Also Like These Perspectives on Market Updates [![Cover Photo](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/hubfs/social-suggested-images/Cover%20Photo.png)](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/commentary/q3-2026-review) [Market Updates](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/commentary/tag/market-updates) ### [Q3 2026 Review & Year End Outlook](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/commentary/q3-2026-review) October 28, 2026 | 1 min read [![Cover Photo](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/hubfs/social-suggested-images/Cover%20Photo.png)](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/commentary/2026-halftime-report) [Market Updates](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/commentary/tag/market-updates) ### [2026 Halftime Report](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/commentary/2026-halftime-report) August 12, 2026 | 1 min read [![ft-img-new-bull-market-1](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/hubfs/ft-img-new-bull-market-1.jpg)](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/commentary/tom-samuelson-on-money-life-with-chuck-jaffe-june-2026) [Market Risk](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/commentary/tag/market-risk) ### [Tom Samuelson, CFA, CMT on Money Life with Chuck Jaffe](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/commentary/tom-samuelson-on-money-life-with-chuck-jaffe-june-2026) June 16, 2026 | 1 min read ### Subscribe to Vineyard Commentary ![Vineyard\_GlobalAdvisors\_logo\_white](https://blog.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/hs-fs/hubfs/Vineyard_GlobalAdvisors_logo_white.png?width=200&name=Vineyard_GlobalAdvisors_logo_white.png) 9800 Mt. 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