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Is Another Bear Market Rally On The Way? Insights from Tom Samuelson in International Business Times

Sep 13, 2022 11:22:46 AM

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"Is Another Bear Market Rally on the Way? "– Insights from Vineyard Global Advisors Chief Investment Officer Tom Samuelson.

Tom Samuelson, CFA, CMT, shared his expert perspective with Panos Mourdoukoutas Ph.D. of International Business Times, about investor behavior and stock market seasonality.

The bounce in the stock market over the last few days is due to the new narrative on Wall Street that inflation may be peaking, and the Fed may be able to wind down its rate hikes and tightening cycle soon. However, the breadth of this bounce has been very mediocre, suggesting the bounce is likely to be another bear market rally, as we suggested the June-August rally was likely to be.

How the Eurozone Rate Hike Accelerated the Turnaround of U.S. Equities and Lowered Inflation Numbers Out of China Reached an 18-Month Low.

In an aggressive move to fight inflation, Eurozone's central bank increased rates which helped halt the dollar's advance against the euro, helping U.S. multinationals with broad exposure to the Eurozone market. Lower producer prices in China could signal lower commodity prices in the U.S. 

Why Experts Believe the Current Bounce Back Isn't Sustainable.

Several economic fundamentals point to a hard landing, such as a slow-down in China's exports, the decline in consumer purchasing power due to lower wages, and the Fed's removal of liquidity from credit markets undermining lending.

Why U.S. Equities May Be in for Another Bear Market Rally. 

Tom Samuelson states, "Stock market seasonality is unfavorable through mid-to-late October. Should we see a retest or overshoot of the June lows, it would provide a more attractive risk-reward entry point for investors."

Read The Full Article...

Author: Panos Mourdoukoutas Ph.D. author International Business Times

Guest Contributor: Tom Samuelson, CIO of Vineyard Global Advisors


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